Not any more

Conservative lead dries up, poll suggests

In Canada on August 5, 2010 at 08:45

The federal Conservatives’ lead over the Liberal Party appears to have evaporated, with both parties virtually tied at the same level of support, a new EKOS poll suggests.

The ruling Tories had enjoyed a notable lead over the Liberals in recent weeks, but the latest poll, released exclusively to CBC, found that 29.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, compared with 28.5 per cent for the Liberals.

Support for the Conservatives had not dropped below 30 per cent since late 2006.

Support for the Liberals has gone up by three percentage points since the previous week, while the Tories have seen a 3.5 percentage point drop.

There were no marked shifts in support for the NDP (17.4 per cent), Green Party (11.1 per cent) and Bloc Québécois (10.4 per cent).

According to the poll, the Conservative Party is leading in every region except for Atlantic Canada, Quebec (where support for the Bloc dominates with 41 per cent), and British Columbia, where support for the Conservatives and the NDP is within the same range.

But the Tories are not seeing strong support as a “second choice” party. When respondents were asked which party would be their second choice, the NDP had 17.7 per cent support, followed by the Liberals (16.6 per cent), Green Party (12.9 per cent) and the Conservatives (10.3 per cent).

The poll also suggested that while slightly more Canadians (46.7 per cent) believe the Conservative government is moving in the wrong direction, 41 per cent think the country is moving in the right direction.

The random survey of 1,516 Canadians aged 18 and over was conducted July 28 to Aug. 3 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.52 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Corrections and Clarifications

  • An earlier version of this story said the Conservatives are leading in every region except Quebec and British Columbia. In fact, the EKOS poll suggests the Conservatives are also trailing in Atlantic Canada. An earlier version of the story also indicated that the Conservatives, Liberals and New Democrats are “within the same range” of support in B.C. In fact, the Conservatives, with 31.4 per cent support and the NDP, with 31.1 per cent support, are in the same range. The Liberals trail with 23.9 per cent support, the EKOS poll suggests. Aug. 5, 2010 | 7:51 a.m. ET



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